Analyzing data from thousands of polls, Enten identifies the root causes of President Donald Trump's sharp decline in approval ratings during his second term, which he views as a major warning sign for the midterm elections.
Key findings from the analysis:
Disagreement of other factors: Enten analyzed issues of foreign policy (e.g., the Iran war) and immigration policy, finding that while approval ratings on these issues declined, they were not the primary factors contributing to the overall sharp drop in approval ratings.
The main factor is "inflation": The cost of living and inflation are the most significant causes. Trump once had a 7-point lead over Kamala Harris on this issue, but now his approval rating is negative 51 points.
Dissatisfaction among his supporters: Most alarmingly, even among Trump's 2024 election supporters, there is dissatisfaction with his handling of inflation, an issue that helped him win the election in the past. (5:12 - 5:57)
Statistical data: Data from Fox News indicates that Trump had negative approval ratings on inflation in 44 out of 45 surveyed groups. This includes low-income groups and rural working-class people.
Impact on the party: Enten warned that public anger over inflation is impacting other Republican candidates across the country and could lead to a loss of seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, similar to past political events.
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