Putin’s Covert Invasion With ‘little Green Men’
Russia took a step closer to a full-blown invasion of eastern Ukraine this week, warning that a military crackdown on pro-Russia separatists there would constitute “an attack on the Russian Federation.” The threat came as Ukrainian troops renewed attempts to oust pro-Russia rebels from towns and buildings in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, following the discovery of the body of a local politician who had been tortured and killed. The separatists had refused demands set out in the Geneva accord—signed by Russia and Western nations last week—to end their occupation of government buildings in return for immunity from prosecution. Drawing parallels with the invasion of Georgia in 2008, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that if “Russian interests” in Ukraine were attacked, his country would “certainly respond.”
The U.S. and the interim Ukrainian government charged that the “little green men” leading the insurgency—militants wearing green uniforms with no insignia, and their faces covered by balaclavas—were Russian special forces soldiers sent by President Vladimir Putin to destabilize the region. The U.S. State Department said these men’s weapons, bulletproof vests, and ribbons all were those of Russian soldiers, and released photographs of rebels in Donetsk bearing a striking resemblance to Russian special forces soldiers photographed in previous separatist rebellions in Crimea and Georgia. During a two-day visit to Kiev, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden threatened Moscow with further sanctions, and called on Russia to “stop supporting men hiding behind masks.”
The Geneva agreement merely advanced Putin’s “strategic objectives,” said The Wall Street Journal. That supposed peace deal didn’t even mention the May 25 election for a new Ukrainian government, which Putin is determined to undermine. No wonder Putin has started referring to southeast Ukraine as “Novorossiya” (“New Russia”). The cunning strongman sees the West responding with only “token” military gestures, weak economic sanctions, and “pleading” diplomacy.
There can be no doubt that Putin is “determined to see the new Ukraine fail,” said The Economist. Mindful of potential unrest back home, he wants to show Russians that pro-European demonstrations like the one that toppled former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych will be crushed. To keep Putin from even more outrageous behavior, the U.S. and Europe need to unite behind a broad visa ban on powerful Russians, and cut Russia off from using dollars, euros, and British pounds—a step that would have “devastating” effects on its economy.
Putin has reinvented the art of invasion, said Anne Applebaum in Slate.com. Rather than send thousands of troops over the border, he’s seizing control of eastern Ukraine with small numbers of special forces troops and military intelligence officers, who are directing local pro-Russia thugs and criminals. The West will probably see it as a victory if Russia doesn’t formally annex Ukraine, said seth Mandel in Commentary Magazine.com. But that’s not Putin’s aim. “Taking on more territory is costly,” especially since Ukraine’s economy is in tatters. The Russian leader would much prefer to install his corrupt cronies in autonomous regions, and “control Ukrainian governance while essentially charging Kiev rent.”
Since no one wants a military confrontation with Russia, President Obama is adopting the Cold War strategy of “containment,” said Peter Baker in The New York Times. He’s hoping that “while Putin seems for now to be enjoying the glow of success,” he will soon discover how his adventures in his near abroad have damaged Russia’s economy. If the results are recession and serious deprivation, ordinary Russians may turn on their new czar.
Russia is already paying a steep price for Putin’s ambitions, said Ilan Berman in The Wall Street Journal. About $51 billion in capital has fled the country in the first quarter of 2014, and the Moscow stock index has dropped 12 percent since Russia invaded Crimea. And the government has downgraded this year’s growth forecast from 2.5 percent to less than 1 percent. If even deeper sanctions are imposed, and foreign investors abandon Russia, it will become more and more difficult for Putin—and Russians—to “ignore the real-world price” of his aggression.
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