Around the World JM: Will Hurricane Milton impact the US election result

Will Hurricane Milton impact the US election result

hello welcome to this week's path to the presidency a weekly conversation between me Sumi Som masanda and Katty K in the runup to the election day here in the US it's been a very busy week here in the US we're recording tonight very late on the night of Thursday October 10th catty is in the UK this week so she's not here with us live but she has sent us her thoughts which we will get to in just a moment but Sumi is here with me she's in Miami in Florida hi Sumi hi Katrina yeah that's right I'm in Miami in a hotel room and in fact there was the prospect that I might join you from a car uh driving back to Miami because we were about two hours north of here but uh we couldn't really make that work so that's why we're speaking a bit later than usual but yeah I'm here in Miami because we've been covering hurricane Milton in the leadup to the hurricane and then aftermath as well and we have Crews of course all across the uh West Coast of Florida the Gulf Coast that was hit very hard where the storm made impact and we're actually on the East Coast because we're looking at some of the tornado damage uh that came through here and that's what we have been doing mostly speaking to people who evacuated before the storm but also those who were hit by the tornadoes and we saw just um extraordinary damage uh wrought by the tornadoes um these are tornadoes that were responded by Hurricane Milton and they came through in a matter of minutes really and uh we got back a little bit earlier from um St Lucy which saw two tornadoes tear through and it was really really difficult to see we saw a a gas station where the entire roof had been lifted off and it looked like somebody had picked up the entire building and just shook it up and then put it back down everything was all over the place and we were speaking to some families as well who are in a lower income area and uh the insulation from the roof basically was torn out and spread everywhere across everyone's cars um they didn't know where they were going to sleep or spend the evening uh really just such terrible stories of people having to deal with the aftermath of the hurricane um but you know I know Katrina you've been seeing this as well it has become a big topic especially in the aftermath of hurricane Helen uh Miss and disinformation this is something we've seen now enter the political debate I mean of course we're just weeks away from the election but uh despite the fact that we're seeing these catastrophic storms so hurricane Helen two weeks ago and now hurricane Milton U we're seeing this question of the political aspect of these storms as well former president Trump has been saying also directly on the campaign Trail and rallies that FEMA used up all its funds on housing for immigrants who have arrived in the country illegally um that is something that we know is not true BBC verify has been reporting on this well this as well and FEMA actually you know has two pots of money they're two separate pots of money there is the disaster relief money and then there is money that is also used for housing for immigrants who do arrive in this country as they're putting in their Asylum claims but you know that that pot of money for disaster relief is ring Fen so it is not like that is accessed um for that uh housing for immigrants we also saw this claim that in the aftermath of Hurricane Helen that people who were impacted in North Carolina North Carolina were receiving checks of $750 and that's it that's also not true um as we know our our verified team has been looking at that and FEMA did hand out upfront payments of $750 but what was interesting is I talked to a city councilman from Tampa Bay and I asked him about this Miss and disinformation I said you know is this something you're encountering and he told me look we we have encountered it but we feel like government has gotten out in front of it and then I I pushed him a little bit harder on it on this question of FEMA do do people here trust you know the the federal agency and he said one of the issues is after Helen um people were having their claims rejected by FEMA and he wouldn't say you know that this directly but what he was essentially indicating is that FEMA needs to get in here quickly in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton to help people out and also deal with some of these claims and it was a really interesting aspect of the coverage here to hear that there is frustration with FEMA and that could perhaps fuel frustration Katrina but I know this is something you've been seeing there in DC as well yeah I mean we've been covering this back toback all week long we've been speaking to local officials in all of the affected cities and communities and what's been really striking is how local some of the relief efforts are that it's you know the local fire chiefs the local Mayors the local Aid agencies on the ground who are really coming together we're in a position now where the loss of life from this storm seems to have been relatively minimal of course one person killed is one person too many but when you look at over 200 having been killed by Hurricane Helen the evacuation orders seem to have worked seem to have been followed people got out of the kind of at risk areas ahead of time but a couple of things struck me about this when you're talking about misinformation and disinformation as being quite extraordinary and a marker of the times that we live in first was you know you're talking about all those claims that were made about fumi the fact that FEMA a federal agency had to put a factchecking page on its own website debunking claims that are being made by politicians because it's not just the former president Donald Trump who's been saying these things of course there have been other Republican elected officials members of the US Congress who've been saying that as well that's quite extraordinary that a federal agency would have to do that and the other quite extraordinary thing is when President Joe Biden was addressing the nation on Wednesday night in advance of hurricane Milton arriving and he was saying to people you know if you haven't left by now it's really approaching please don't try and leave shelter in place hunker down you know and and try and ride it out as best you can and he spent sort of half of his address saying that and then the other half of his address was spent with him criticizing Donald Trump and saying how un American he was and what nonsense he was talking about and it just shows you how politicized this has become that you know a candidate like Donald Trump is saying something and you would kind of expect that from candidates the stakes are high but a sitting president who is not seeking reelection is also using that moment to correct those claims but also to really severely criticize the person that's running from the other party and it's very difficult for kamla Harris and all of this I mean we haven't seen her as much as we've seen Donald Trump because she has to defer to Joe Biden he's the president he's the one making the addresses to the nation it would be quite odd for her as vice president to be doing that so it's there's a lot interplaying here with this storm coming so close to polling day as it is indeed and you know I thought it was interesting to see a republican congressman from North Carolina who I know you've interviewed in the past Katrina Chuck Edwards also putting out a statement debunking some of these claims important of course because uh there are members of his constituency who are affected by Hurricane Helen so that was a really interesting aspect to that and you know I actually was um listening to the interview you did as well with congresswoman uh Luna from Florida about this issue and I what was her response to this uh this question of Miss and disinformation because again for her State as well this is crucially important she deflected the answer there I would have to say and she said you know in relation to the $750 she said okay that's emergency money but we know how expensive things are in Florida and $750 won't get you very much if you've lost everything and you need fuel for your car and you need rooms in hotels and you need food and you need clothes and so on but there was an interesting bipartisan moment actually from the congresswoman where she said she was awaiting a call from President Joe Biden so she might have to cut short our chat because she was waiting on the president to call we also heard the president say about the close contact that he'd had with the Republican governor of Florida Ronda Santos who of course was Donald Trump's onetime rival for the nomination and then also in the running to be his vice presidential pick so you know and Ronda santis has been doing so many press conferences and briefings in Florida as happens with governors of States when they face these kind of things they take on a huge profile and a huge role um so for all the kind of fighting and forward and backwards there have been these bipartisan moments of let's just come together and do something and help people who are so badly in need of help as you mentioned a little bit earlier caddy couldn't be with us for the recording but uh she actually sent us a clip of her thought for the week here it is hi guys I am sorry I'm not with you in person I am in the UK and somehow just the time zone differences between what I'm doing over here and Florida and just didn't work out this time but I have been having uh some really interesting conversations this week and one with I spent some time on the phone with a senior official in the Harris campaign and it was just so interesting to get a read of where they are what are we three and a half weeks out from polling day um and this official said to me that they felt more optimistic for weeks ago than they do today and I've been kind of checking in with them regularly and I would say that's what I judged from the kind of tone of the conversation but basically they see the race tightening um between Trump and Harris and that they had that kind of surge after the announcement it followed through to the DNC and then after the DNC as we've all seen right in the polls the kind of momentum slowed down and what they see is people coming home to Trump um so they say that they are running very much scared uh which I think I think is an interesting way of phrasing it they compared what they are doing in this campaign and with this campaign Staffing because I know that the staff has come under quite a lot of criticism which they do not love um from kind of Democrats saying Harris has not been out enough she hasn't been doing enough interviews enough and they don't love that kind of you know backseat driving from people who used to run campaigns uh but one of the things they said that compared to 2016 for example was that Robbie moo who was Hillary Clinton's campaign manager was talking in terms of of a landslide really you know we're going to win 400 Electoral College votes and they say they have a very different attitude and that they are the kind of as they described it the nervous Nellies um of campaigning and they all run as if you know there is very much the possibility of losing and one thing in particular really struck with me from that conversation and they sourced it to Jen palmier actually who used to work on the Hillary Clinton campaign um and who is now working uh in Doug mhof office for the campaign and apparently Jen Palmieri came in when she joined the campaign a few months ago in the early summer and said in the summer once um VP Harris was the candidate said listen we have to fundamentally change the way we think about Donald Trump we have to stop thinking about him as a bad candidate and we have to recognize that actually he's a really good candidate um and that he is very good at this particular thing of running for president and I thought that was was just a very interesting switch of mindset because my impression covering the 2016 campaign which I covered was that there was a sort of dismissive attitude towards Donald Trump and also to his supporters that famous basket of deplorables phrase that she used much to her detriment um but that they kind of thought he was a joke he didn't really know what he was doing and I think this campaign is trying to treat Donald Trump much more seriously and even though it was widely recognized that that CA Harris had a very good debate against Donald Trump the the kind of zeitgeist within the campaign is he is he is very good at doing what he does he has a really strong sense of politics he has a really strong sense of where he needs to do and he has a very good sense of how to tap out his base and maximize people turning out for the poll so I thought that was that was a kind of really interesting just glimpse into the campaign's mindset that they definitely are are running with the glass half full that was the phrase they used we see the glass half full every single day and it's the opposite of 2016 really interesting thoughts there from caty um I also was here covering the the 2016 election and there was that dismissive look down your nose type of attitude from the Democrats from the Clinton campaign at Donald Trump and as we've seen time and again underestimate Donald Trump at your peril um but the messaging that we're hearing I think in the last week is not necessarily respectful of Donald Trump um you know and we do hear kamla Harris refer to him as not a serious individual you know and kind of undermining him um and particularly this week with what we were talking about there those claims about the the hurricanes and so on like it really feels like they're leaning into making him seem odd and weird that expression that we hear from from Tim Walls um and this is not an a serious individual who you want as your president handling hurricanes handling International Affairs but I can see how they would be nervous in the Harris campaign because you know the polls are tightening but they're not really moving that much the the margins of error are there and the shifts are within the margins of error so it's you know it's impossible to call this and you know we've been traveling around States and you meet one Trump voter you meet a Harris voter a trump voter a Harris voter it seems very evenly divided and I thought it was interesting that Alysa slock and the congresswoman from Michigan and I know Katrina you were reporting in Michigan just a few weeks ago and you were pointing out there is going to be a struggle for Democrats in the state of Michigan she was um heard at a fundraiser saying that their polling their internal polling shows that kamla wat kamla Harris excuse me is quote underwater uh in Michigan and and that just goes to show that if you look at some of the latest polling um there does look to be a real struggle for the Democrats and for KLA Harris's campaign in some some of those blue wall States so Wisconsin and Michigan um a bit closer or tighter and More in KLA Harris's favor in Pennsylvania um but that doesn't surprise me so much that that they are quite nervous if that's the case but as you said um Katrina you know if if that rhetoric is changing and they're trying to take Donald Trump seriously as a good strong candidate uh it is not something that we're necessarily hearing from KLA Harris when she's been out and about is it the other point that caty was making there about interviews and people within the KLA haris team you know getting her to do interviews and so on I mean we've seen her do so many interviews this week more in line with what we see from Donald Trump because he's always doing interviews isn't he and I don't know I have to question how influential doing News interviews actually are and I say that in spite of myself and what we do and you know KLA Donald if you're listening there's a space here beside us come and talk to us we'll we'll happily do interviews but I I I know uh People Like Us and you know politicos put a lot of truck in doing these interviews and you have to be seen to be out there and taking questions and whatever but I think people normal people are going about their business they're not necessarily sitting down and watching these interviews in the same way and making their mind up one way or the other I mean podcasts maybe are a bit different when you go and you speak to a very targeted audience and let's be frank a much younger audience who maybe the campaigns aren't reaching in any other way those perhaps do have a greater influence but I'm not sure the kind of the formal sitdown TV interviews sway many voters Katrina what have you been looking at this week well the other big issue that's been uh pushing coverage of the presidential election out of the news cycles of course and potentially out of people's minds is the situation in the Middle East and we've said before that foreign policy is not generally an issue that moves voters Minds in this country and you know so much of the world is concerned about who's going to be president and what that might mean for the Middle East that's not necessarily how voters here make their minds up when they go into The Ballot Box and there was some really interesting polling actually from the Pew Research Center on this and and just to say who Pew is it's a nonpartisan nonprofit non- advocacy polling group so they don't make any recommendations they literally just ask people what they think and they had polling out around the October 7th anniversary um trying to get voter views of the Middle East crisis and they spoke to a good chunky poll of about 10,000 people so that's a lot more representative than what we normally see and a majority of people 61% said they wanted the US to play a role diplomatically in resolving a war the war and that is a that's a sizable increase on people who had said that earlier in the year and perhaps in contrast to the views of people in other countries around the world only 31% of Americans think Israel's operation against Hamas in Gaza is going too far and another onethird say they're unsure whether it's going too far whereas we see views from other countries that people say it is going too far and there is a humanitarian crisis there um and another 40% so four and 10 Americans are really concerned about America becoming directly involved in the conflict in the Middle East and that's really a place I think where the campaigns and this issue can make maybe have an impact when it comes to military when it comes to deployment you know we keep hearing that Mantra from former president Trump and his campaign about how much calmer and safer the world was when he was in office and a pledge to return it to that and that's a really important message sui as you know here for people who have family members in the military they don't want them deployed into Wars on the other side of the world where they don't see that they have a vested interest that they're concerned about their sons and daughters brothers and sisters SS Partners friends whatever being sent into very very risky places so I did a little bit of digging into how military communities might be minded to vote um and it was really interesting actually because we've seen obviously a lot of military references from both campaigns particularly around the vice presidential candidates and and military families and military veterans are traditionally a group that lean Republican but they swung away from Trump in 2020 um by about 2% generally Across the Nation but if you look at places where there are military bases they SW swung away from Trump by 8% in 2020 now these might seem like small percentages but this race is going to be one in the margin so that matters then you look at where are these military bases where are these military families and the biggest military base in America is in North Carolina one of the Battleground swing states that we're talking about the fifth largest one is in Georgia another Battleground swing state that we're talking at talking about really big bases in Michigan really big bases in Pennsylvania as well so potentially issues around um deployment of the US military a role for the US military is something that will shift fures um in these states where as we keep saying just really matter so much those are fascinating statistics Katrina it certainly makes me think about the fact that you know the military records of um Tim Walls and JD Vance have also been brought up a few times here the fact that they're both veterans the running mates of course for KLA Harris and for Donald Trump and you know it really feeds into the line I know we've been discussing this in the past few weeks in the podcast as well the the question that Donald Trump's campaign keeps asking in campaigns of course is to say or in um rallies as well as to say was your life better off four years ago and one of the points they make there is that the world wasn't in the quote unquote chaos that it is in now and certainly if you look across the globe um people might have that perception of the world right now with not only the war in the Middle East but of course the war in Ukraine ongoing as well um and so you know that is such an interesting point that you made also on the the polling on how people feel about the US's role what I do wonder is you know how much voters hold kamla Harris accountable for the fact that there hasn't been a diplom solution you know if they want the US to play a diplomatic role do they see this as so far President Biden's quote unquote failure because until now he seems to have been styed by um the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and also you know his secretary of state Anthony blinkin despite his shuttle diplomacy as several trips to the region they haven't been able to move forward a ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza nor have they been able to to dial down those tensions in Lebanon as you were mentioning the escalation there so I guess what not clear to me yet is how much people really hang that on KLA Harris and I think that's probably Limited in a way because it isn't really her Lane to get into and discuss is it I mean Joe Biden is still the president he is the leader when it comes to foreign policy of this country and it's another place where it's very hard for her to be speaking and saying things you know that aren't in lock step with the president who is there having these conversations as we saw earlier this week with prime minister Netanyahu and you know the point that former president Trump makes and his campaign make about the world being safer and not in that chaos as you're saying there is that getting out of them is now the issue like we can't just turn back a clock and end conflicts as much as so many people would want to and get their loved ones back and wish all of this death and destruction hadn't happened but when you come to think how do you get out of it there isn't much daylight between the positions of of Donald Trump and kamla Harris they've both pledged you know unwavering support for Israel they've both said they wouldn't be in the business of withdrawing military aid from Israel which is what we see many other places calling on the US to do and calls within the us as well for there to be some kind of sanction for the Biden Administration to use some kind of Leverage there so in terms of how they get out of it we haven't heard too much from either of them because I mean these this is an intractable conflict there's a reason why we haven't been able to get to a peace deal for a year now and I think it's probably at this point you know going to be pretty safe to say that we won't see that the few weeks now ahead of the election will we so um it could very well play a big role but um I think we're going to wrap it up there Katrina I'll say good night to you it's obviously late here in in Florida late there in Washington so perhaps a good point to end it this is one of our our late night recordings of path to the presidency of which there will be plenty more because the day is rolling in soon we will be there on Election night and of course we'll be in the studio bringing all of the results as they come in or as they don't as the case may be but um yeah I will I'll I don't know if I'll see you soon because I'm off to Arizona so we may be ships passing in the night once again nice to see you on the screen yes talk to you soon bye bye

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