How badly did COVID-19 end up in world tourism
One trillion dollars was lost this year and international tourist arrivals are expected to remain 70% to 75% below 2019 levels, a similar decrease to 2020.
The recovery of global tourism seems to be slowing down more than experts predicted, while COVID's new mutation, Omicron , has now frozen booking packages for next summer, and travel restrictions are growing in most countries.
Data from the first 9 months of 2021, which show a clear picture of what happened this year in global tourism, show a reduction in travel by 76% below the levels of 2019, reduced by 20% even compared to 2020.
According to the latest version of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Tourism Barometer, international tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) increased by 58% in July-September 2021 compared to the same period of 2020, however, they remained 64% below 2019 levels.
Europe recorded the best relative performance in the third quarter, with international arrivals falling by 53% compared to the same quarter of 2019. In August and September arrivals were at -63% compared to 2019, but these were ultimately the best monthly results since the beginning of the pandemic.
It is noteworthy that some islands in the Caribbean and South Asia, along with the Mediterranean, recorded their best performance in the third quarter of 2021, with arrivals approaching or sometimes exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said the data for the third quarter of 2021 were encouraging, "However, arrivals are still 76% lower than pre-pandemic levels, and the differences between many regions are large."
The increase in demand for travel is due to the increased confidence of travelers that is achieved with the progress of vaccinations, but also the easing of restrictions in many destinations. In Europe, the EU Digital Covid Certificate has helped to facilitate free movement within the European Union. Arrivals in January-September 2021 were only 8% lower than the same period in 2020, however they are still 69% lower than in 2019.
The recovery rate is slow and uneven
Despite the improvement observed in the third quarter of the year, the recovery rate remains slow and uneven in all parts of the world. This is due to various reasons, such as vaccination rates, travel restrictions, etc. While Europe (-53%) and the Americas (-60%) showed relative improvement in the third quarter of 2021, arrivals in Asia and the Pacific fell by 95% compared to 2019, as many destinations remained closed.
The Africa and Middle East recorded a drop of 74% and 81% respectively in the third quarter compared to 2019. The countries that recorded the best results were Croatia (-19%), Mexico (-20%) and Turkey ( -35%).
Slight improvement in revenue
International tourism revenue figures show a similar improvement in the third quarter of 2021. Mexico recorded the same gains as in 2019, while Turkey (-20%), France (-27%) and Germany (-37%) ) recorded a comparatively smaller decline.
The forecasts
Despite recent encouraging data, inequality in vaccination rates around the world and new Covid-19 strains could affect the already slow and fragile recovery of global tourism.
In addition, the economic pressure caused by the pandemic could negatively affect the demand for travel, which has already been exacerbated by the recent rise in oil prices.
According to the latest UNWTO data, international tourist arrivals are expected to remain 70% to 75% below 2019 levels in 2021, a similar decrease to 2020.
Revenues from international tourism could reach $ 700-800 billion in 2021, a slight improvement from 2020, but less than half of 2019 ($ 1.7 trillion). However, with the Omicron mutation in progress, it is doubtful whether the proceeds will reach these numbers.
