Omicron Mutation: How It Threatens to Change the Face of the Pandemic - What We Know
The Omicron Mutation is more contagious and resistant to vaccines, with the third dose being a shield. What is changing in the landscape of the pandemic and what applies to its danger.
Almost a month after its detection, the Omicron variant appears more contagious and appears to partially evade vaccines. The big unknown remains the severity of infection, once the new mutation of coronavirus a peilei to change the face of the pandemic.
What is the Micron Mutation?
It is the result of a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 and was detected in late November in Botswana and then in South Africa.
Its peculiarity is the increased number of mutations in relation to the original strain of the virus that appeared in China and in relation to previous variants, such as the Delta , which has dominated the world since the summer of 2021.
It is not known where and how Omicron appeared. One hypothesis prevails among scientists: the virus mutated slowly and silently in the body of an immunocompromised individual, a process that took many months to arrive at a completely different version of the original strain.
What is changing
It is obviously very contagious. This was a case in point, which became a certainty in the first weeks of December based on the evolution of the epidemiological situation in many countries.
"Omicron is spreading" at a rate we have not seen in any other variant "and" is likely to be present in most countries, "warned World Health Organization Director-General Andrew Gembreses.
South Africa and neighboring countries experienced a resurgence of Covid cases with the arrival of Omicron, which also increased in many European countries, with the United Kingdom and Denmark leading the way.
More broadly, Omicron is likely to become the dominant variant in Europe by mid-January, according to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Will it permanently replace Delta? The chances are high, but scientists point to other possibilities: Omicron will replace Delta's predecessor, but eventually leave the post again or the two variants will coexist, as is the case with some strains of seasonal flu.
What about vaccines?
It's one of Omicron's biggest challenges, as today's vaccines are at a point where their effectiveness is declining over time.
Omicron mutations can significantly reduce immunity to the virus through neutralizing antibodies. Consequence: Omicron can potentially re-infect infected people and infect a significant number of those vaccinated.
Many recent studies in the laboratory support this hypothesis. They show that the levels of antibodies against Omicron are reduced in those vaccinated with Pfizer / BioNTech , Moderna and also with AstraZeneca or Sinovac.
Of course, a booster dose seems to greatly restore antibody immunity, as announced by Pfizer and BioNTech. But it is not known if this immunity lasts over time.
However, this does not mean that vaccines lose all their effectiveness. Because antibodies are only one part of the immune response, which also includes T cells. This cellular immunity is more difficult to measure, but plays a very important role, especially in severe forms of the disease.
Thus, according to a study published this week in South Africa, the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine remains highly effective against severe disease, even after two-dose vaccination.
Omicron also appears to cause problems in the treatment of synthetic antibodies, which are mainly used in hospitalized patients.
On the contrary, it is hoped that Omicron will not resist the anti-Covid tablets recently announced by Merck and Pfizer. However, this is a case that needs to be proven in practice.
Its danger
This is the big stranger. Clinical data from recent weeks lead to the conclusion that Omicron is no more dangerous than its predecessors, especially the Delta.
It is now "almost certain," leading infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci said in early December, adding that it was likely to be less dangerous.
But should we bet on that? It's a risky bet. Scientists warn of optical error. If Omicron is less dangerous and more contagious, the consequences will remain serious on a collective level.
"We are concerned about the fact that people consider Omicron mild. "Even if Omicron causes less severe symptoms, the number of cases is capable of causing a flood of health systems that are not prepared for this development," warned the WHO director general.
Revision of forecasts for 2022
As the Omicron variant comes to the fore in Europe and the United States, scientists are revising their predictions for the Covid-19 pandemic next year. Just a few weeks ago, experts predicted that countries would begin to emerge from the pandemic in 2022, following the resurgence caused by the Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta variants. The first countries to emerge from the pandemic would be countries that would combine high levels of population exposure to the virus through infection and high levels of population protection through vaccination.
In these areas, Covid was expected to develop into an endemic disease, possibly with less severe periodic or seasonal outbreaks. The vaccines, which were available for much of 2021 in rich countries, would reach most of the world's population next year.
But the rapid spread of the highly contagious Omicron variant, which was detected in late November, and its potentially greater ability to re-infect humans than its predecessors, undermine this hope of a pandemic.
Already, many countries are returning to taking measures that were used in previous phases of the pandemic: travel restrictions, mask use, avoiding large gatherings on holidays.
Although we are not back to square one, most people will need to be vaccinated or exposed to Covid to overcome the pandemic, infectious disease experts told Reuters.
"People have recovered from the pandemic and God knows how far I have recovered, but if we fail to force our leaders to act urgently, I really anticipate that 2022 will be a repeat of 2021," she said. Angela Rasmussen, virologist of the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization of the University of Saskatchewan, Canada.
The next variations
Even as Covid develops into a more endemic disease, new variants will emerge and seasonal relapses will occur in the coming years.
"There will always be a number of Covid cases, hospitalizations and deaths," said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. "A lot of people have not realized this."
The hope is that the virus will weaken to the point that it will not disrupt life. But living with Covid-19 does not mean that the virus is no longer a threat.
Instead, people should be prepared to adapt when the next variant appears, says Dr. Tom Frieden, head of Resolve to Save Lives and former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). "It may need to be determined at certain times that it is safer to do certain things than at other times."
